CRN Politics

By Barry Secrest

To listen to any number of talk radio shows, or watch any number of establishment biased cable newscasts, many Americans might think that Trump hasn't any hope of winning the 2016 GOP primary.

In fact, Trump was recently excoriated by both Republican and Conservative pundits for defending his pro-life stance, in the face of radical Leftist Chris Matthews.

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In a hostile interview, Trump ignited GOP ire by stating that an illegal abortion, should perhaps, include some form of punishment if undertaken hypothetically, and against the law.

Granted, we all thought that this was the essential platform of the GOP, but, apparently, while the spirit of the GOP's pro-life stance remains intact, at least with Trump and most Conservatives, the party's actual outlook might appear to be something else, altogether.

But, regarding the 2016 GOP race, In an earlier story released several days ago we outlined the fact that Trump's lead had been increasing at a surprising pace, within the Reuters Tracking Poll, and at even resurgent levels, however, few other media sources have published this fact.

Even fewer are talking about it....

But, let's face it, the establishment GOP and many of their stealthy talk show cronies appear to be trying to skew the race against Donald Trump, and in very unrealistic ways. In fact, with the GOP establishment lined up against the anti-establishment's Trump, it's amazing that Trump has done as well as he has.

But, then how well is that? Despite winning almost double the number of contests that Cruz has won, Trump has maintained a significant lead that seems to have evaporated, at least within the establishment and alternative media.

In fact, presently, Trump holds a semi-comfortable lead of 736 delegates to Cruz's 463, but, is that enough to win without the possibility of an open or contested convention?

The Analysis

In Wisconsin, Trump once held a considerable lead and Wisconsin's a winner-take-all state, so Trump could have gained 42 delegates, however, Cruz, over the past three weeks seems to have overtaken Trump, with polling numbers presently showing Cruz with a 6.8 percentage points+ advantage.

On the other hand, Cruz previously held a polling average lead, back on March the 20th, of as much as 10+ points. Moreover, very recently, Trump appears to be showing a massive upsurge in Wisconsin, as across the nation; but will it be enough and will it be in time?

The most recent poll in Wisconsin, conducted by CBS News/Yougov, showed Trump quickly regaining ground with Cruz declining to 43% and Trump gaining to 37% which falls within the margin of error for the poll.

Fox, whose polls have historically overperformed for Cruz, while underperforming for Trump, has also shown Cruz with a current lead of 10+ points.

And then, there's also the most recent PPP poll, for Wisconsin, taken March 29th, which shows Cruz at 38% and Trump at 37%, a statistical tie.

Point being, while the Wisconsin race seems locked up for Cruz, at least according to the media as recently as March 29th, now, things are once again reverting, which means that Wisconsin may not be as in-the-bag for Cruz as political experts have been saying.

More notably, the recent trend in individual state polling has shown Trump severely over-performing the polls, in most actual primary results, as Cruz has meanwhile underperformed.

In Arizona, for example, the RCP polling averages showed Trump's overall polling performing at 13+ while his actual victory showed him winning by 22+.

So, while Trump may not win the state, Cruz is in a position where he simply must take Wisconsin or, it will be statistically impossible for Cruz to win the nomination, outright.

Trump Revised Delegate Total post-Wisconsin - Too Close to call

In New York, it's a practical no-contest zone for Trump, but it's also proportional, however, the other candidates are so far behind, they won't meet the proportional threshold, meaning Trump takes all 95 delegates.

Trump Delegate Total - 831 

 

In Connecticut, the polls are so old it's almost impossible to forecast, however, assuming Trump's northeast appeal holds true, Trump should win at least 14 out of 28 delegates in that state, at worst.

Trump Delegate Total - 845 

 

In Maryland, a winner-take-all state, Trump held a comfortable lead as of 3/8, so here again, Trump should take all 38 delegates with a margin of 5+.

Trump Delegate Total - 883 

 

In Pennsylvania, a winner-take-all state, Trump, on March the 1st, held a lead better almost than double his closest rival, and that trend should hold.

Trump will take all 71 delegates with a 13+ margin.

Trump Delegate Total - 954

In West Virgina, Trump's polling as of 2/16 was double that of the closest candidate.

While the polling is old, when Trump's margins begin at double his competition, and with no polling since that time, (due, no doubt, to Jeb's! dropping out) Trump most likely wins all 34 delegates, with an 11+ margin.

Trump Delegate Total - 988

In California, Trump, throughout almost all of the polling, maintained a significant lead and it's a winner-take-all state. A cautionary note here, the LA Time's ran a 3/16 to 3/23 poll that showed a statistical tie, between Trump and Cruz, however, the poll was conducted right on the heels of a PPP poll, which showed a significant lead for Trump of 38% to Cruz's 27%.

The LA Times, it should be noted, is a relatively poor source of polling information, sourcing their renowned slant on all things both Progressive and anti-Trump.

This most likely means that Trump, as the celebrity, maintains his lead and should win an almost devastating count of 172 delegates, with a margin of 5+.

Trump Delegate Total - 1,160 

In New Jersey, closely bound to New York, Trump has always held another devastating lead in another winner-take-all state, and with the backing of Christie, to boot, add another 51 delegates.

Trump Delegate Total - 1,211

From the reviewed races, above, Trump should win at least 1,211 of the delegates.

If Trump were to win Wisconsin, he would then qualify for the GOP nomination, with over 1,286 delegates, however, if he doesn't win Wisconsin, Trump still holds a multitude of paths towards the victory while Cruz's prospects dim considerably.

This, by the way, is why the fight over Wisconsin has been so hard-fought.

However, there are at least eight other states that weren't reviewed, due to the unavailability of current data, which accounts for an additional 262 delegates who belong to anyone's guess.

New Mexico, as a proportional primary border state with 24 delegates, should go mostly to Trump, however, with no polling data available, it's impossible to source that preclusion.

If Washington and Oregon, which are proportional states initially tied to Huckabee,were to be split, Trump could gain as many as 40 delegates. But, Trump presently holds the overall advantage with about 60% of the needed delegates now, and with 17 states to go.

The synopsis, if taken as of Trump's performance to date, in addition to the contests which he still most likely will win, Trump Will most likely end up with a delegate count of about 1,280, based upon his historical results, when coupled with those states he is expected to easily win.

There may be surprises along the way, however, those surprises (which tend to break both ways) will most likely not change the overall outcome of this race.